Aviation and Defense Industry
-Data comparison and thinking caused by the three lists

Labels: industrial people, bourgeoisie, industrial party, military fans, civil science, keyboard man;
Full text: 5000 words,
Reading time: about 12 minutes;
Thinking annotation time: about 30 minutes;

The fiscal year of listed companies in the United States is a new year, from July of the first year to June of the second year,
For example, Forbes, which is more authoritative in the comprehensive list, usually collects and collates relevant financial data (mainly revenue, profit, etc.) after the annual reports of listed companies come out, and publishes the annual top 500 list;
And give some summary, the two magazine operating brands "Fortune Forum" and "(Fortune) 500" still continue to maintain their discourse hegemony in the financial field;
Fortune & Forbes, Business Week and the Financial Times of the United Kingdom will have an annual top 500 selection,
This year's overall list, as well as China's list and the US list, will not be launched;
Briefly: the growth rate, growth rate, future ceiling of Chinese enterprises, and the ebb and flow of the world situation, both China and the United States are growing, and China's growth rate is even greater;

Today's topic is:
2021 Fortune Global 500 Sub-Industry List: Aerospace and Defense
Original link:
In this list, Forbes summarizes 13 companies whose main projects are aerospace and defense, 6 in China, 5 in the United States, and 2 in Europe (Airbus France and BAE Systems in the United Kingdom);

There are also some industries that generally list a little later each year;
A major source of information related to the aviation and defense sector is the annual Top 100 Defense List of Defense News;
And the British "Brand Finance" (Brand Finance) released the "Biennial World's 25 Most Valuable Aerospace and Defense Brands" list (Aerospace & Defense 25 Biennial),
Wait for the more professional Top 100 Defense to Companies 2021 around August 15, and I will continue to write the article;

All the leaderboards are designed to reflect the competition, the current situation; extrapolation of subsequent changes;
The logic behind is induction, comparison, prediction (time vertical axis, ranking horizontal axis, curve outlook) track upper and lower limits, etc;

Analysis category: US-China, P5, BRICS and industrialized countries;
Due to well-known reasons, after the founding of the Republic, the construction of the industrial system relied on Soviet aid (the time was too short), the times were turbulent, and it entered the stage of self-reliance (the time was long). On the basis of a thin belly and no knowledge, it completed the establishment of weapons with two bombs and one star,
Later, it was in line with the international community (joining the United Nations, establishing diplomatic relations between China and the United States, disarmament, land contracting, reform and opening up, and entering the WTO), and made certain progress in the field of people's livelihood, as well as in the field of regular industry and commerce, and the goals of the four modernizations were partially realized;
In the future, there will still be resistance and motivation for the rise of China (restoration of resurgence). Briefly expand the basic idea;
1. The dome of energy and environment. For example, according to the developed countries, especially the developed countries in the United States and Europe, the American lifestyle needs 5 times of energy and environment; the European lifestyle needs 3 times of energy and environment;
2. Due to the limitation of geography and times, the Asia we live in has a limited land and sea area, and its resource carrying capacity and population carrying capacity are all 3 to 5 times that of the United States and Europe. Factors such as geographical expansion, industry, and technology have certain latecomer disadvantages;
3. Looking at the future from the past, never looking at the past, looking at the future and the past from reality, we should all have the ability and confidence to do a good job in China and Asia; there is a long way to go, and we should constantly strive for self-improvement;

Turn to business
Group 1: US-China control, P5 control;
1.1: The Fortune 500 Space and Defense Sub-list has 13 companies, 6 in China, 5 in the United States and 2 in Europe (Airbus of France and BAE of Britain). Of course, the Fortune 500 is a comprehensive list. Its perspective is slightly biased and focuses more on the entire industrial and commercial livelihood society.
1.2: Top 100 Defense Companies 2020, 7 in China, 50 in the United States, 24 in Europe (21 in Western Europe and 3 in Eastern Europe), 3 in East Asia and Japan and 4 in South Korea (don't underestimate South Korea, although Bonzi has many shameless places);
There are 2 in India in South Asia, 1 in Singapore in Southeast Asia, 3 in Israel in the Middle East, 2 in Turkey (think of the cooperation between Pakistan Iron and Turkey) and 1 in the United Arab Emirates. The rest are Canada, Australia and Brazil, which are vast and sparsely populated countries;
There are a large number of 24 in Europe, including 7 in Britain, 5 in France, 2 in Germany, 2 in Italy and Spain, and 1 in each of the Nordic countries, the Netherlands, Sweden and Norway; the above is only in terms of quantity;
          
The form also has an important place is the company's main revenue in the military revenue, main revenue, military revenue than the main revenue ratio, summarized as follows

Company Name Country 20 Years Defense Revenue 20 Years Total Revenue
China's defense sector (7 central enterprises) China's 95626.82 350109.82 27.31
U.S. Defense Sector (50 on the List) U.S. 307330.02 618829.78 49.66
U.S. Defense Sector (Head 8) U.S. 229093.37 303,110 75.58%,

China's defense sector (7 central enterprises, 2 soldiers, 1 empty, 2 days, 1 ship, 1 electricity) military accounted for only about 27%, the U.S. military head of the 8 enterprises main business concentration of 75%;
Of course, this is due to historical reasons. After the 1960 s and 1970 s, China's general pattern turned to the issue of people's livelihood development, disarmament and merger and cutting of military industry (the six mechanical ministries have been merged into the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology for many times, and the external circulation has not been established, etc;
Even at present, our military enterprises have a long way to go; the proportion of US military enterprises and military expenditure is about 50% of that of the world; the output value and proportion of China's military enterprises are relatively small for the time being, and they are still relatively small in the international arms market than Russia and France.
South Korea, Turkey has continuously expanded its markets in the Middle East and Southeast Asia by virtue of its geography, industrial specialty, self-national awakening and other factors. Therefore, it has been repeatedly stressed that there is a long way to go, while the orders of the Ministry of Defense have increased greatly.
The competitiveness of the international market really counts against the clock; if the internal and external cycles of the military market are done well, it will be more conducive to our scientific and technological progress in the field of aerospace and defense, economic scale, and economic efficiency;
    
1.3  《Top 25 most valuable aerospace & defence brands》，英国品牌调研公司，Brand Finance
This list, which is a biannual list, 2018,2020,2020 and so on, we take 2020 list as the object of study to make a basic exposition; the list revolves around the basic market of aerospace and defense, with 25 brands at a time,
Evaluate the brand value of the top 10 enterprises and judge the rise and fall of brand value. In 18 and 20 years, AVIC (AviChina) has entered the list, ranking from 20 to 19.
The 2020 list is shown in the figure. There are 14 American companies, 3 in France, 2 in the United Kingdom, 1 in Germany, 1 in Canada, Brazil, Italy, Sweden, and 1 in China. United Airlines of Russia lost this time.
Among the top 10 brand valuation rankings, 6 in the United States, 3 in France and 1 in the United Kingdom;
Because this list is about brand value, in fact, it is about word of mouth. The actual production and purchase market situation circulated in the text still depends on the Top 100 Defense, but it can still reflect the core competitiveness of some military enterprises,

1.4 this is the eye of this article, the most important thing is to deduce, the next 3 to 5 years, 10 to 20 years and even more distant 20 to 50 years, 100 to 200 years will be the situation?
A. China International Capital Corporation Limited, which has a relatively broad vision among domestic bank research and brokerage firms, CICC [601995] has a series of research papers "Military Overseas Mapping Series" around 2018
Of course, this is a typical Party A research report. Most of the data are from the financial market, with differences in industry, market and market value. I define the horizon timeline as 3 to 5 years, but it is always better than that defined as 0.2 to 2 years in most research reports;
Its focus is on the leading and listed companies, benchmarking enterprises, benchmarking performance and so on. The industry and products are basically clear, but the background and logic still need to be greatly strengthened, and more importantly, the conception,
Mapping (mathematical noun-mapping), that is, the meaning of mirror (physical noun-Mirroring), is relatively too simplistic,
The future deduction of military enterprises is definitely a relatively strong game process, with strategic determination, strategic opportunities, painstaking experience, Thucydides trap and prisoner's dilemma. This will be discussed in a later series of articles.
 
B from the further 20-50 years and 100-200 years, this sounds rather suspended, but in fact it also happens around us.
Or from the principle (imaginary)-exploration (trial and error)-practice-engineering, the logical line to sort out;
In 1964, Soviet astronomer Nikolai Kardashev (Nikolai Kardashev) conceived the level of extraterrestrial civilization, which was roughly divided into three levels: Type I civilization-parent star civilization, Type II civilization-planetary civilization, and Type III civilization-stellar civilization;
Based on this preliminary theory, Japanese-American theoretical physicist Michio Calais (MichioKaku) 2100 that the current human civilization can open the threshold of type II civilization-planetary civilization;
Therefore, the progress of space is the most important step of human development and progress, and there is no one. If we look at it from this perspective, we're going to go back to the fields of energy, energy conversion, interstellar navigation; these fields are close to what man knows.
On the edge of the world, for example, Elon Musk (Elon Musk) of the US Space Exploration Technology Company (SpaceX) has reduced the cost of sending goods into space to 3500~4000 USD/kg, which is 2~50000 USD/kg when humans first involved in space.
It has been roughly reduced by about 5 times. I firmly believe that in the limited time in the future, the cost will be greatly reduced to 3000 USD/kg or even 2000 USD/kg, because the Chinese price crusher has not yet exerted its power.

C. From the above two points of A. B., in the medium term, especially in the next 10 to 50 years, China's strategic perspective should not be biased. The basic improvement and cutting-edge breakthrough are two hands that must complement each other, so as to lead the future;
A few days ago, one of China's three major think tanks, China Engineering Science, the journal of the Chinese Academy of Engineering, republished an old news article "The Main Indicators of a Manufacturing Power. I think most of the ideas in this article focus on basic improvement,
After studying the model, index system and weight distribution, we can make a systematic article on aerospace and defense industry;
Regarding cutting-edge breakthroughs, continue to follow the practices of the Russian Space Agency (Roskosmos) and the United States Space Agency (NASA) to do things, whether the time schedule is too slow; whether it can be done in small steps and fast iterations like SpaceX.
It is related to this issue, the complexity is relatively high, involving products, capital, system, etc., which requires a lot of professional articles to explain.

Next period to continue to explain